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My 2004 predictions and a look back

Here are my predictions for 2004, with a look back at my predictions for this year.

Steve Jobs called 2003 the "year of the laptop", but that was only part of the story. The biggest stories of 2003 were the G5, Panther, iTunes Music store, and the new line of PowerBooks & iBooks. In all, this was one of Apple's most successful years ever, driven by the remarkable success of the iPod and the iTunes Music Store. This year also marked the death of the G3, when Apple introduced G4 based iBooks.

Let's go through my predictions for 2003 and see how we did.

• 1 GHz iMacs at 17" and 19". We actually saw 1.25 GHz iMacs with 20" screens.
  
• iBooks, most likely based on the 'GOBI' G3 rather than G4 We did see G4 based iBooks as well as the popular 12" PowerBook G4.
  
• smaller desktop system to replace the aging minitower. No. The G5 is one of Apple's biggest towers.
  
• High end systems and XServes will use IBM's 970 CPU. Apple introduced the G5, but XServes are still based on G4s.
  
• iPods will gain more PDA functionality & wireless connectivity. No, although the iPod did become a lot more powerful & flexible.
  
• Quark XPress will finally be released for Mac OS X. Yes, this was a no-brainer.
  
• MacOS X 10.3 will be released Another no-brainer, although it doesn't include the seamless data sharing features I predicted. iTunes playlist sharing was released in a separate update. Apple did release their own web browser, but it isn't based on Camino.
  

So, here are my predictions for 2004:

• G5 based XServes. It makes sense that a high-end server would get the most powerful processor available.
  
• A limited edition system, perhaps a colored iMac or a new Cube, to mark the 20th anniversary of the Macintosh.
  
• A small, inexpensive, limited capacity iPod, probably around $100-200.
  
• Faster G5s, possibly reaching 3 GHz at MacWorld Expo, pushing 4 GHz by the end of the year.
  
• A major iLife update. iTunes may get a broadcasting feature that will allow others to listen live, in addition to playlist sharing.
  
• A redesign of the iMac, possibly a headless iMac.
  
• Wireless connectivity for the iPod, either Bluetooth or Airport Extreme.
  
• MacOS X 10.4 will be released late in the year. We'll most likely see "Home on an iPod", which was rumored for 10.3. This will let you keep your home directory on an iPod or external drive. We'll also see some improved data sync features for people who use both laptops & desktop systems.
  

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